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Going ‘Monocultural’, ‘Sustainable’, or ‘Integral’: Three Scenarios for the Future Development of Dalmatia, Croatia

Since the mid-20th century the area of Dalmatia, the southern littoral region of Croatia along the Adriatic Sea, has undergone striking changes. From a predominantly rural region, it has been functionally and physiognomically transformed, and littoralisation, urban based industrialisation, and tourism development have affected changes differently. On the one hand, a high concentration of people and economic activities has characterised coastal centres as carriers of the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. On the other hand, depopulation and socio-economic underdevelopment have, to a great extent, marked (especially) the smaller Dalmatian islands, the interiors of the larger islands, and the Dalmatian hinterland. Considering these spatial development trends it is necessary to study and plan for possible future changes. By combining factor analysis and the Delphi method, i.e. quantitative and qualitative tools, the goal of the research was to build future development scenarios for Dalmatia until 2031 and study their implications for spatial planning processes in the region. Factor analysis of 49 development indicators for 131 local government units in Dalmatia resulted in 6 key factors of recent development characteristics. Based on this, a panel of 19 scientists and experts from the academic community and planning practice considered possible future developments, in the time frame of 2014 – 2031, through two rounds of questionnaires. Their responses were qualitatively analysed and interpreted to form three explorative scenarios for Dalmatia: ‘Monoculture of tourism’, ‘Sustainable tourism’, and ‘Integral development’. ‘Monoculture of tourism’ is based on further ‘touristification’ of Dalmatia and high seasonal activity that will not help reverse negative demographic processes. Levels of environmental protection, as well as innovation and technology will be low. ‘Sustainable tourism’ is based on much diversified tourist offerings and highly multiplicative effects on complementary economic activities which will not significantly affect demographic improvements. However, use of spatial resources will be more sustainable. ‘Integral development’ is based on year-round activity and employment, knowledge industries, and high levels of innovation and technology. With special attention being paid to the development of smaller and middle sized urban centres, this should have a positive impact on demographic trends. The consistency of these scenarios was checked in the second Delphi round, and implications for spatial planning of Dalmatia were listed. Via scenario method it was possible to encompass a wide analytical area, the complex set of important factors that influence development characteristics, and their possible future influences. Scenarios pointed to links among various aspects of spatial development, and the implications stemming from them are important both for spatial planning and a wider development context.

Scenarios; Development; Dalmatia; Croatia

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