engleski

Heat stress and agriculture in Croatia: past, present and future

The study analyzed consecutive days with maximum daily air temperatures above 30°C in Croatia. The data was taken from 81 meteorological stations and 110-, 50-, and 30-year periods were analyzed. The aims of this study were to show the spatial distribution of affected areas due to heat stress and using the regional climate model (RegCM) to gain insight into the future climatic conditions on the Panonian plain in Croatia. Heat stress was defined as at least ten consecutive days with maximum daily air temperature equal to or higher than a certain critical temperature. The critical temperature was taken from a range of temperatures from 30°C to 34°C per 1°C. Vulnerability of an area due to heat stress in agriculture was defined by the existence of at least 6 years with heat stress during a 30-year period. Results show a sudden increase of the number of days with maximum daily air temperature above the critical maximum daily air temperatures, and increase of the number of periods with heat stress in Croatia in past three decades when compared to the reference period 1961–1990. Results also show the expansion of the zone affected with heat stress for the critical temperatures in the range from 30°C to 32°C. Analyses based on numerical simulation of maximum daily air temperature until 2070 show expansion of area affected with heat stress from Adriatic coast to the Pannonian plain. Thus, the irrigation system will need to be introduced for those crops that we still do not irrigate.

maximum air temperature ; heat stress ; climate change

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