engleski

CRORURIS 2030: The Concept behind Scenario-based Approach to Croatian Rural Futures

The paper presents the concept for producing a set of alternative future scenarios for Croatian rural areas in 2030 with the goal of encouraging informed and evidence-based public debate on rural futures. The territorial size, population number, functions, and variety of challenges rural areas face today, put the question of their future as one of the most pressing contemporary issues in Europe. Recently, there have been numerous scenario-based approaches to study future trends and driving forces for rural Europe, both in academic and political discourse, on national and EU level (e.g. SCENAR 2020, EURURALIS etc.). On the contrary, to our knowledge, no scenario-based research on rural areas in Croatia has been conducted and only few partial impact analyses have been conducted in recent Croatian agricultural policy. The main objectives of the CRORURIS study are as follows: 1. to develop a conceptual framework for understanding recent change in rural Croatia ; 2. to develop methodological framework for identifying predominant trends and key uncertainties, differentiating them geographically by typological approach and projecting them forward using statistical modelling and Delphi method ; 3. to construct alternative future scenarios and relate them to the context of rural Europe.

scenario; rural area; future; Croatia

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