engleski

The influence of climate change on tree species distribution in west part of south-east Europe

Fully understanding of ecological niche it is of crucial importance for getting complete insight in forest ecosystems function. Understanding interaction between climate and vegetation represents one of the most essential segments in researching geographical distribution and development of species. For ecological niche modelling were used available date on tree species distribution obtained from data of terrestrial habitats Republic of Croatia (Oikon d.o.o. for MZOPU, 2004), Flora Croatica Database (http://hirc.botanic.hr), reconstructing vegetation maps (Map of forest vegetation Republic of Bosnia and Hercegovina and Map of forest ecosystems Republic of Croatia) and personal field researches. Climate data used for ecological niche modelling were taken from database WORLDCLIME for period 1950-2000 (http://www.worlclime.org). Spatial distribution of climate data is 30arc-seconds, that equals to the approximately resolution of 1 km2 (to be exact 0, 83 km2) (Hijmans et al., 2005). Spatial distribution change of ecological niche for main tree species was modelled for year 2080. using climate data obtained from global climate change models CGCM2 (Coupled Global Climate Model-SRES-A2a) and CGCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) (source: http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org). This climate model represents second version of first generation global climate model (CGCM1) essentially improved when compared to first version. Parameters of mixing ocean from horizontal vertical scheme were modified to vertiginously mixing (Gent & McWilliams, 1990) and in the second generation model was included sea and ice dynamic (Flato & Hibler, 1992). For ecological niche modelling was used MAXENT program (Phillips et al., 2004, 2006). Global climate changes, regardless to the origin (natural condition or anthropogenic effect) are actual appearance in Earth. Models predicting global climate changes contain large entropy because they do not include all those factors and their mutual interaction that have direct or indirect effect on climate. Further researches in ecological niche modelling for wood species find application in vegetation and forest ecosystems charting and in analysing interaction between vegetation and ecological factors. More qualitative spatial models in future should be developed and improved with proportion of species in total mixture as depended variable at ecological factors and detail pale botanic researches. Assumed climate changes can lead to changes in spatial distribution of forest vegetation manifested in abundance of current forest types, possible decay of existing or appearance of new types, changing abundance of certain tree species populations, productivity of forest ecosystems, ecological stability and forest health status as well as in changing total productive and forest function of general benefit.

Climate change, ecological niche, south-east Europe

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