engleski

Timing abilities of Croatian mutual funds: A threshold regression approach

Market-timing abilities of mutual funds are an issue which has been extensively researched on different markets all over the world. Henriksson-Merton model is a usual way to empirically test for presence of those abilities. However, researchers assume that all of the funds are characterized with the same threshold value in the Henriksson-Merton model framework. This paper goes beyond the simple assumption of the zero value of the threshold in the mentioned model. Main question in the research is whether each fund has its own threshold value. The paper tests for individual threshold effects for a sample of 27 mutual funds in Croatia for the period June 1st 2012 to May 27th 2014. The results indicate that each fund has its own threshold value in the model, but only 7 funds exhibit market-timing strategies.

Market-timing strategy; mutual funds; threshold regression; Croatian capital market; Henriksson-Merton model.

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