engleski

The Use of Agent-Based Modelling in the Care Decision-Making Process: A Feasibility Study

This work aims to establish the extent to which the ABMs might be successfully implemented to demographic research with special attention being put on the modelling of the ageing process. A specific goal is to demonstrate how feasible can be the properties of ABMs, seen as the interactions between the individual agents equipped with the simple behavioural rules, in explaining of the informal/formal decision making process among the elderly population. The research scope includes following core areas: (1) Theory of agent-based modelling ; (2) Modelling in the demographic research including ABM and alternative approaches ; (3) Demography of ageing, care for the aged ; (4) Behavioural theories and decision making ; (5) Feasibility check in respect to the research objects and the potentials for validation. The suggested ABM should be able to capture the main processes affecting the demand for and supply of care. It includes health status, fertility, mortality, but also processes of partnership formation and dissolution as well as the social networks. The behavioural theories will assist us to test certain hypotheses and to generate the experiments. In such way we will be able to 'project up' the behaviour of individual agents in the process of social care demand and supply, and in the end to evaluate if this actions fit the macro-outcomes. Finally, research suggests that ABM boasts the capabilities to serve as a useful tool in providing an intuition how certain changes in the demographic system would affect its dynamics and the final outcome. Its main aim is not to complicate an overall system analysis, but instead to use computing to provide an assistance in exploring and explaining of the behaviour of populations.

Agent-Based Modelling; Microsimulation; Ageing; Care

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