engleski

Modelling entry into aged care in Australia

Australia has an Aged Care Assessment Program (ACAP) for accessing different forms of aged care, and an Aged Care Funding Instrument (ACFI) for persons in residential aged care. Comprehensive data from these systems are stored in the National Aged Care Data Clearinghouse, allowing detailed modeling of the processes of applying for approval, receiving approval, entry to aged care and exit from aged care. In 2011-12 182, 128 ACAP assessments were completed, covering residential aged care, respite care, home care services and transition care. In 2012-13 there were 71, 063 admissions to residential aged care and 69, 046 separations, and at 30 June 2013 there were 168, 968 residents. Only 49% of persons approved for residential care in 09-10 entered residential care within 12 months. The ACAP data include details of the households, health conditions and activity limitations of each applicant, in broadly comparable form to those recorded in the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2012. Comparing these two sources allows modeling of the probability of an application being made. Analysis of the ACAP data allows models of the probability of an applicant being granted residential approval, and of the time for this to occur. This paper shows the results of these analyses. ACFI assessments are completed within 8 weeks on entry to residential care, and whenever a resident’s health changes sufficiently to suggest a different level of government funding may be appropriate. The recorded data include the main health conditions, and assessments of nutrition, mobility, personal hygiene, toileting, continence, cognitive skills, behavior, depression, medication and complex health care. Comparing ACFI records at entry with ACAP assessments allows models of entry likelihood and delay Analysis of the rich ACAP and ACFI data may improve care for our aged, and may perhaps also be helpful to other countries.

Microsimulation; Aged Care; Ageing; Statistical Modelling

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