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A PRELIMINARY INSIGHT INTO COMPETENCES FOR HOLISTIC DECISION MAKING AND SCENARIO PLANNING IN CROATIAN COMPANIES

The purpose of the paper is to give a preliminary insight into competences of managers for holistic decision making and scenario planning in Croatian companies. In the introductory part a brief overview of notable ideas and research that have contributed to the development of scenario planning will be given. The research from secondary data will be made by reviewing theoretical foundations in the field of scenario planning and strategic management. This will be accomplished by literature research and using methods of description, classification and deduction. Primary data research spans a time period of 8 years, giving a temporal overview of three separate, yet closely connected researches into managers’ competences for holistic decision making and scenario planning in Croatian companies (diagnostic horizon 2006-2014). Here must be noted that the survey sample size is fairly small, and therefore the results and subsequent conclusions may only be acknowledged as preliminary. Low response rate to the survey represents the greatest shortcoming of this research. Results of the research are ambiguous. On the one hand, relevant scientific literature strongly suggests and encourages the use of holistic (both quantitative and qualitative) methods of decision making in the process of scenario planning. However, on the other hand, the collected primary data shows little evidence to support that this is actually happening in Croatian companies. The paper concludes with a notion of an evident disparity in the need for use of holistic decision making methods and their actual use in the process of scenario planning in Croatian companies.

Complexity; Unintelligible future; Business transformation; Holistic decision making; Scenario planning

nije evidentirano