engleski

Assessing the quality of migration statistics in Croatia

Producing reliable and comparable migration data can be a very challenging task. Registration of deaths and births is generally required by the law, but the same usually does not apply to migration. The focus of this paper is analyzing the migration statistics quality in Croatia. Different data collections report substantial differences in counts of migration events. This paper analyses the discrepancies found between two data sources: the data from the 2011 Census and the yearly data on migration flows in Croatia. Although we do not employ a perfect method of validation, given the differing time periods covered by the two datasets (1st of April 2010 to 31st of March 2011 for the population census data, and 1st of January to 31st of December of the respective year for the migration flow data), available data can smoothly be adjusted and compared. The results indicate migration data inconsistencies, such as the over/undercount of migration events for some age groups. The correlation coefficient describing the relationship between the two datasets is satisfactorily high when it comes to data covering internal movement of people, but surprisingly low when it comes to data referring to counts of in-migrants from abroad. However, we should bear in mind that datasets used in this paper cover slightly different populations. For example, migrants who die and infant migrants are included in the yearly flow data, but are excluded from the population census. Furthermore, in census data, migration is recorded as a single transition event in a respective yearly period. However, this does not justify relatively large differences in migration numbers found between the two migration data sources being compared. We hope to shed light on the way migration data is compiled and highlight the challenges and limitations demographers and other social scientists face when conducting research on such an important topic. Producers of the official migration statistics in Croatia should supplement the data being published with explanatory notes and estimates of over/undercounts of yearly migration flow data.

migration statistics ; quality validation ; Croatia

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