engleski

Distributions of European montane caddisflies in the wake of climate change: the Drusinae (Trichoptera)

The Drusinae subfamily consists of about 100 species distributed across Europe. Some species are widespread and common, while others are restricted to one of several regional centers of endemism, such as in the Alps or the Balkan Highlands. These local and rare species, along with some newly described ones, are known from few confirmed occurrences only. While the full distribution of some species thus remains uncertain, the majority of species in the group are micro and regional endemics. Moreover, and because of the predominantly montane habitats they occupy, Drusinae are particularly susceptible to climate change. These aspects make this larger, running water taxon an interesting group to assess their vulnerability to environmental change through species distribution models (SDMs). Models are applied for individual Drusinae species to describe their current distribution patterns in Europe at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Beyond the usual application of bioclimatic predictors, additional predictors enhance the model: (i) topographical properties are used to approximate position in the catchment (catchment size) and (ii) soil properties indicate the possible composition of the substrate. Distribution predictions are projected for the year 2080 to determine changes in range size, as well as shifts in altitude and latitude/longitude. Projections are based on 5 different future climate models and 4 different future climate scenarios. Results of the first SDM models show mostly shifts towards northern latitudes and higher altitudes, for most of the future climate scenarios.

Drusinae; species distribution models; climate change; endemism; range shift

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