engleski

Stochastically improved methodology for probability of success (‘POS’) calculation in hydrocarbon systems

Geological risk of new hydrocarbon reserves discovering is usually calculated on deterministical or expert-opinion way, and expressed as ‘Probability Of Success’ (abbr. POS). In both approaches are included selections of single probability values for each geological event organised into geological categories that define hydrocarbon system. Here is described a hybrid, i.e. stochastical, model based on the deterministical approach. Here was given example from the Croatian part of the Pannonian Basin System (abbr. CPBS), improved with stochastically estimated subcategory for porosity mapped in the Stari Gradac-Barcs Nygat Field (Drava Depression). Furthermore, there is theoretically explained how such approach could be applied for two other subcategories – quality of cap rocks and hydrocarbon shows. Presented methodology could be advantageous in clastic hydrocarbon system evaluation.

geological risk ; determinism ; stochastics ; Neogene ; Northern Croatia

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