engleski

Next Global Crisis: Greatest Recession in the History of Capitalism is at the Doorstep

The main purpose of this paper is to warn academia and general public about the inevitability of the impending global economic recession. Heuristically paper introduces concept of macroeconomic gambling trap within the wider context of global economic history. Macroeconomic gambling trap is then applied to the current situation. The underlying cause for the impending crisis is the growth of debt in the West. Primary progenitor of debt problem is the world’s largest debtor nation, United States. Since the 1970s and the unilateral destruction of the golden standard US political and military power guarantee status of the dollar as world reserve currency despite absence of its backing in gold. Debt explosion caused alienation of financial sector from the real economy in most western countries. The impending crisis is foreshadowed by a Great Recession (Financial crisis of 2007/2008). The Great Recession was only temporally stopped by means of unorthodox monetary policy – with quantitative easing programs and by keeping interest rates at record low, even negative, levels. However, this will make forthcoming collapse only more severe. After analysis of the influence of gold standard collapse on the outcome of the Cold War the paper utilizes specific economic indicators, such as velocity of money M2 for USD, growth in total debt, CAPE ratio for aggregate US stock market, US labour force participation and index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to indicate the immediacy and the inevitability of the next global recession

Economic crisis; Financial crisis of 2007/2008; Gold standard; Global reserve currency; Currency war; Velocity of money

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