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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 774905

Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models


Baldigara, Tea; Mamula, Maja
Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models // Tourism and hospitality management, 21 (2015), 1; 19-31 (recenziran, izvorni znanstveni članak, znanstveni)


Naslov
Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models

Autori
Baldigara, Tea ; Mamula, Maja

Izvornik
Tourism and hospitality management (1330-7533) 21 (2015), 1; 19-31

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, izvorni znanstveni članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
International tourism demand ; econometric modelling ; seasonal ARIMA models ; forecasting ; forecasting accuracy

Sažetak
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model able to capture and explain the patterns and the determinants of German tourism demand in Croatia. Design – The present study is based on the Box- Jenkins approach in building a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model intend to describe the behaviour of the German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Approach – The proposed model is a seasonal ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(1, 1, 3) model. Findings – The diagnostic checking and the performed tests showed that the estimated seasonal ARIMA(0, 0, 0)(1, 1, 3) model is adequate in modelling and analysing the number of German tourists ‘arrivals to Croatia. Originality of the paper – This study provides a seasonal ARIMA model helpful to analyse, understand and forecast German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Such, more detailed and systematic studies should be considered as starting points of future macroeconomic development strategies, pricing strategies and tourism sector routing strategies in Croatia, as a predominantly tourism oriented country.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Fakultet za menadžment u turizmu i ugostiteljstvu, Opatija

Časopis indeksira:


  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
  • EconLit


Uključenost u ostale bibliografske baze podataka:


  • ABI/INFORM
  • EconLit
  • Cabell's Directories
  • Cabi Publishing: Leisure, Recreation and Tourism Abstracts
  • CIRET
  • EBSCO Publishing: Hospitality & Tourism Complete
  • Hrčak
  • Scopus
  • SSRN - Social Science Research Network
  • ZBW – Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften