Redefining the Croatian Economic Sentiment Indicator (CROSBI ID 626605)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Lolić, Ivana ; Sorić, Petar ; Čižmešija, Mirjana
engleski
Redefining the Croatian Economic Sentiment Indicator
Based on Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) data, the European Commission (EC) regularly publishes the monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for each EU member state. ESI is conceptualized as a leading indicator, aimed ad tracking the overall economic activity. In calculating ESI, the EC employs arbitrarily chosen weights on 15 BCS response balances. This paper raises the predictive quality of ESI by applying nonlinear programming to find such weights that maximize the correlation coefficient of ESI and year-on-year GDP growth. The obtained results show that the highest weights are assigned to the response balances of industrial sector questions, followed by questions from the retail trade sector. This comes as no surprise since the existing literature shows that the industrial production is a plausible proxy for the overall Croatian economic activity and since Croatian GDP is largely influenced by the aggregate personal consumption
Business and Consumer Survey; Economic Sentiment Indicator; Leading Indicator; Nonlinear Optimization with Constraints
Rad je objavljen u otvorenom pristupu: Internationa Journal of Social, Behavioral, Education, Economic and Management Engineering: International Science Indeks 104. Rad je u potpunosti financiran sredstvima Hrvatske zaklade za znanost ; znanstveno-istraživački projekt "The role of economic sentiment in explaining macroeconomic trends: methodological improvements and new areas of application", IP- 11-2013-3858
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Podaci o prilogu
2015.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Podaci o skupu
17th International Conference on Qualitative and Quantitative Economics
predavanje
27.08.2015-28.08.2015
Pariz, Francuska