engleski

Method for techno-economic analysis of hybrid optical wireless access networks by Monte Carlo simulation

The dissertation presents a novel techno-economic model and modelling tool for simulating hybrid fixed-wireless access network provider. In this context, hybrid fixed-wireless access network is a network where the last leg towards customer is accomplished by using one of the wireless techniques, while connection between the provider and the wireless leg is provided via fibre optics or other fixed broadband technology. Access networks in general are modelled by either dividing the entire serving area into geotypes, or by grouping subscribers into categories – or by any combination of both – and then running scenarios by a Monte Carlo engine. Although the dissertation builds on both approaches, it differs in two ways. Firstly, it generates scenarios with much greater granularity. It does that by keeping track of every single subscriber, as well as his / her interaction with the access provider throughout the life of the entire simulation. And second, it models several of these interactions dynamically. Here the dissertation implements real options concepts by implementing flexibility available with every endeavour where subsequent decisions can modify the outcomes. Access networks are especially interesting object of modelling because of high barriers to entry despite of great number of technical alternatives that exist there. In that respect, the dissertation analyses the issues in access provision, first by establishing technical capabilities of the candidate solutions, and second, by analysing the market in general. Then, the candidate technologies, the candidate market segments and the dynamics of local access provision around which the model is built are identified. Specifically, due to the nature of hybrid fixed-wireless access, the long tail of subscribers is analysed further, together with the services available. The model simulates capital budgeting of a hypothetical hybrid fixed-wireless access provider and the dissertation explains its components. The applicability of the model is presented via a case study on “base-case scenario”, where the user can assess the viability of hybrid fixed-wireless access business case by analysing many output parameters the model is configured to provide. The dissertation shows how the model can be used to provide answers to, among others, various what-if inquiries. And finally, the extra granularity is vindicated by presenting how the model could be used to analyse development of each simulated life, day-by-day, to draw valuable conclusions, and to identify early signs of opportunities or risks in the life of a real hybrid fixed-wireless access provider.

fixed broadband access; wireless broadband access; techno-economic modelling; Monte Carlo; real options; long tail

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