engleski

The potential of fission nuclear energy in resolving global climate change

There is an international consensus on the need of drastic reduction of carbon emission if very serious global climate changes are to be avoided. At present target is to limit global temperature increase to 2 C and to keep CO2 concentration below 450 ppm, though some recent request by climatologists argue for lower limit of 1.5 C. The carbon emission reduction has to be done in the next few decades, as climate effects are essentially determined by integral emission. The integral emissions should not exceed 1000 Gt CO2 to keep the probability of exceeding global temperature by 2 C below 25 %. Consequently, when we consider energy sources that could produce carbon free energy we have to concentrate on the period not later than 2060-2065. The sources that can take the burden of reduction in the years up to 2065 are Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and nuclear fission energy. The potential of RES has been estimated by many organizations and individuals. Their predictions indicate that RES are not likely to be sufficient to replace carbon emitters and fulfill the 2 C limit requirements. The nuclear fission energy can give a very serious and hopefully timely (unlike nuclear fusion) contribution to reduction of emission. Even with proven conventional reactors using once through fuel cycle without fuel reprocessing the nuclear build-up in the years 2025-2065 could reach 3330 GW. With this concept nuclear contribution of 94.5 EJ/y would be reached by 2065, while integral CO2 emission savings would be about 500 Gt CO2 by 2065. This shows that essential nuclear contribution is possible without the use of plutonium and fast breeders, technology not ready for climate-critical next 50 years and not acceptable in present political environment. This nuclear fission energy contribution along with contributions from renewable sources, energy saving, and increased efficiency in energy use can solve the climate problems.

carbon; emissions; climate change; nuclear fission

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