hrvatski

Kineska ekonomska i financijska transformacija: utjecaj globalne financijske krize i reperkusije kineskog kriznog menadžmenta

China's economic and financial transformation represents key global trend in the last three decades. The process of opening up created a myriad of internal and external challenges when it comes to China's governance structure which is heavily based on the governance from the political centre in Beijing, especially given the recent evolution of the Chinese financial system. Those challenges are additionally compounded by the outburst of the global financial crisis in 2008. At that moment the Party had been overwhelmed by the need for a system reproduction which was perceived to be unimaginable in the absence of the double-digit growth rates. China's economy has been undergoing an intensive financialization process ever since that critical juncture, particularly since the monetary policy floodgates have been widely opened and credit turned loose. Financialization sucks the productive energy out of the economic system and leaves an ever shrinking scope for building up a debt- servicing capacity which is indispensible having in mind the rising indebtedness based on credit money creation, as stipulated by the endogenous monetary theory. This paper is divided into six chapters and the final chapter dedicated to concluding remarks. The first and second chapter analyse the basic logic of China's economic and financial reforms until the outburst of the global financial crisis in 2008. The third chapter gives an overview of the underlying interest constellation and key actor's preferences vis- a-vis China's financial architecture. Thereafter, the fourth chapter deals with the key components of China's crisis management in the midst of the global financial crisis. The fifth chapter is logically connected with the previous one as it, having in mind the already given explanation of the financialization of the China's economy in the third and fourth chapter, elucidates the fundamental challenges in financial and economic reform implementation. Namely, those reforms ought to be geared towards creating more sustainable, stable and inclusive economic and political structure. The sixth chapter aims at using Hyman Minsky's concepts such as 'financial instability hypothesis' and 'corporate finance typology' (hedging finance, speculative finance and Ponzi finance) in the analysis of the current state of China's financial system and the ensuing risks for the outbreak of a devastating financial crisis. In the final chapter, the author lays out two scenarios which will play a role in stymying the unsustainable path of financialization in China, namely the scenarios of hard and soft landing. Irrespective of the Party's preferred choice, China's growth rates will significantly plunge. This implies a difficult task of finding new sources of Party's legitimacy. Furthermore, the choice between these two scenarios carries a high stake for the rest of the world in light of rising global financial and trade interconnectedness.

Financijske i ekonomske reforme ; kreditna ekspanzija ; državno-komercijalne banke ; financijalizacija ; Minsky moment ; dug ; BDP ; 'bankovni sustav iz sjene'

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