engleski

Modeling the Degree of Persistence in Croatian Tourism

The Croatian tourism sector has been affected by a number of negative and positive shocks since the beginning of the 1990s. To examine the impact of shocks on tourism, we employ fractional integration techniques as a means to gauge the degree of persistence of such shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1995 to December 2013, we find that the respective tourism indicators contain seasonal unit roots. An examination of the seasonally differenced tourism time series reveals the fractional differencing parameter, d, with allowance for an autocorrelated error process, is strictly below one, implying that shocks are transitory and disappear relatively fast.

persistence ; seasonality ; fractional integration ; tourism ; Croatia

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