#### Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 732215

## Verification of 10-m wind speed obtained by dynamical downcaling in the complex terrain of Croatia

Verification of 10-m wind speed obtained by dynamical downcaling in the complex terrain of Croatia

*// Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Association 2014 Annual Event (EWEA 2014)*

Barcelona, Španjolska, 2014. (poster, međunarodna recenzija, sažetak, stručni)

**Naslov**

Verification of 10-m wind speed obtained by dynamical downcaling in the complex terrain of Croatia

**Autori**

Hrastinski, Mario ; Horvath, Kristian ; Odak Plenković, Iris ; Bajić, Alica ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Stanešić, Antonio ; Tudor, Martina

**Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada**

Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, stručni

**Izvornik**

Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Association 2014 Annual Event (EWEA 2014)
/ - , 2014

**Skup**

European Wind Energy Association 2014 Annual Event (EWEA 2014)

**Mjesto i datum**

Barcelona, Španjolska, 10-13.03.2014

**Vrsta sudjelovanja**

Poster

**Vrsta recenzije**

Međunarodna recenzija

**Ključne riječi**

Numerical weather prediction; mesoscale models; statistical verification; continuous scores; categorical scores

**Sažetak**

Knowing the wind properties is a key to the assessment of wind energy resources and for wind power forecasting. In the complex terrain and coastal regions, where a significant portion of wind energy arises from regional/local winds, it is beneficial to utilize a chain of numerical models to dynamically refine the associated wind fields. Obtained wind speed forecasts from ALADIN 8 km (hydrostatic) and ALADIN 2 km (non-hydrostatic) grid spacing model simulations and refined CFD- like model version at 2 km horizontal resolution (DADA ; hydrostatic) have been compared with measurements for the period of 2011-2012. Statistical verification procedure was performed considering wind speed as continuous and categorical variable. The continuous statistical scores, such as multiplicative mean systematic error (MBIAS), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated and averaged over monthly periods to show their seasonal variability. For verification of modeled mean wind speed as categorical predictand 4 x 4 contingency tables were used (thresholds were 3.4, 5.5 and 8 m/s). Frequency bias (FBIAS ; unity implies no bias) and critical success index (CSI ; measure of relative accuracy) were considered for each category. Overall skill was estimated using Heidke skill score. As expected, both versions of the 2 km grid model give an overall improvement over the 8 km grid spacing model. Unlike ALADIN 8 km, both DADA and ALADIN 2 km more often predict category of strong winds, and less often category of weak winds. That leads to better relative accuracy in category of strong winds, especially at more complex terrain.

**Izvorni jezik**

Engleski

**Znanstvena područja**

Geologija

**Napomena**

IPA projekt WILL4WIND, IPA2007/HR/16IPO/001-040507

**POVEZANOST RADA**

**Ustanove**

Državni hidrometeorološki zavod

**Autor s matičnim brojem:**

Martina Tudor, (300826)

Alica Bajić, (95224)

Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan, (300815)

Kristian Horvath, (273211)