engleski

Is association between mortality and air pollution due to a short temporal displacement?

Standard methodology for analysis of air pollution epidemiological time series expresses effects in terms of relative risk, i.e. increases in the number of events associated with a short term increase in air pollution. However, even large relative mortality rates may in fact reflect a very small effect in terms of person-years life loss. In Zagreb, mortality in 1995-1997 was significantly associated with concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO_2). We have used STL decomposition of time series into additive components of decreasing smoothness to test the hypothesis that mortality - air pollution association is due to short term mortality displacement. According to our results association between mortality and concentrations of NO_2 remains statistically significant at time scales ranging from a few days to 1-2 months.

mortality; air pollution; harvesting; mortality displacement; LOESS; STL

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