engleski

Technology Forecasting For The Emergening Information Technology Appearance At The Millennium Crossing

Technological forecasting is a new phenomenon which accompanies modern technology development and is known for last few decades. Technological forecasting on certain way conducts modern and future technologies. Nowadays changes in a technology area become faster and comprehensive so they need to be forecasted, to signal possible ways in their development and direct them, or in other words, manage them. Technological forecasting gives by using adequate methodologies a base for decision about future directions in technology development. Information technology has became the prime driving force for most of other technologies therefore its forecasting has indirect impact on user technologies but with a few years lag. This paper consists of 3 main parts: first part includes problem definition and description of technological forecasting functions and development. Second part follows with results for modern researches in the area of forecasting of the emerging information technologies at the end of this millennium and in first decades of next millennium. The last part gives forecasting for the emerging information technologies based on analysis of previously mentioned researches' result. Forecasting could be verified with given quantitative data.

Technological forecasting; modern technology development; Information technology

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