engleski

Climate and climate change analysis for the island of Korcula, Croatia

In the framework of international project CC-WateS, Blato catchment on the island of Korcula at middle Croatian Adriatic coast is selected as karstic aquifer test bed. Air temperature and precipitation are analysed as basic input parameters used in hydrological calculations for water supply estimates. Analyses of present climate (1961-1990) contain intra-annual variability and extremes and their temporal variations during 1951-2009 period on monthly, seasonal and annual scale for meteorological stations within the catchment. In the second part, climate is analysed in simulations of three regional climate models. Comparison of simulations of present climate with these three models, local observations and time series from E-OBS database points to a need for bias correction. In this sense, statistical bias correction has been applied to all model simulations when compared to E-OBS values. Since there are differences present between E-OBS and local observations, further simple adjustment is developed. Climate change defined as a difference between future climate (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and present climate (1961-1990) in all three models points towards temperature increase. Trend in precipitation amount points to higher variability in sense of sign and amount of change which also depends on model and season.

present climate; intra-annual variability; extremes; trends; regional climate models; bias correction

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