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Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia


Keglević Kozjak, Suzana; Šestanj-Perić, Tanja; Bešvir, Bruno
Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia // "An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy" / Galetić, Lovorka ; Spremić, Mario ; Šimurina, Jurica (ur.).
Zagreb: Faculty of Economics&Business Zagreb, 2014. str. 77-78 (ostalo, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)


Naslov
Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia

Autori
Keglević Kozjak, Suzana ; Šestanj-Perić, Tanja ; Bešvir, Bruno

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
"An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy" / Galetić, Lovorka ; Spremić, Mario ; Šimurina, Jurica - Zagreb : Faculty of Economics&Business Zagreb, 2014, 77-78

ISBN
978-953-6025-91-6

Skup
7th International Conference "An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy"

Mjesto i datum
Zadar, Hrvatska, 4.-7.06.2014

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Ostalo

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Financial statements ; bankruptcy ; manufacturing ; bankruptcy prediction models

Sažetak
The objective of this paper is to answer the question whether the use of well-known forecasting models can predict bankruptcy of companies in Croatia. The models applied are: Altman’s Z’-Score, Springate model, FP Rating model, BEX index, Kralicek’s Quicktest and Bonitest, all of them being accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models. Our hypothesis was that domestically developed models would be better predictors of bankruptcy. The analysis confirms that for most of the bankrupt companies all the models predicted bankruptcy even four years before the actual bankruptcy occurring. However, in most cases better predictors of bankruptcy were foreign models. By comparing the outcomes resulting from the application of the simple scoring models Bonitest and Quicktest we conclude that Bonitest model developed for Croatian market performs better than Kralicek’s Quicktest, the model developed on German-speaking area. In contrast, the multiple discriminant analysis models FP Rating model and BEX index developed using Croatian companies’ data show less precision when predicting bankruptcy for medium companies in Croatia than foreign models Altman’s Z’-Score and Springate model. Based on the results we believe it would be reasonable to revise the applicability of existing domestically developed models.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Ustanove
Fakultet organizacije i informatike, Varaždin