engleski

Economic Growth and Tourism Demand in Croatia: The Cyclical Components Analysis

Development of tourism has often been considered as a positive contributor to economic growth. The impact of tourism to a country economy is multifaceted. As such, tourism may represent an excellent tool for development. For developing countries, such as Croatia that are faced with the problems of short data sample and, according the all circumstances, computable general equilibrium model is appropriate, because the advantage of this technique upon traditional models lies in the fact that this model includes more realistic set of economy wide constraints. This paper presents preliminary findings using descriptive statistics and spectral analysis. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between the cyclical components of Croatian economy for periods 1972-2013. Using spectral analysis the authors compare the cyclical fluctuations of gross domestic product (GDP) and total tourist arrivals. VAR analysis is also applied in order to detect the relationship between analysed cyclical components in Croatia.

tourist arrivals; economic growth; cycle components; VAR; Croatia

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