engleski

The Analysis of the Industrial New Orders Index and Procurement of Industrial Enterprises in Croatia

The recent financial and economic recession differed from other economic downturns in the past periods. Many professional forecasters of economic activities failed to foresee the recession in Croatia, but also on the global level. Economists failed to anticipate not only start of the recession but also its magnitude. In attempts of business cycle modelling, economist use the broad set of indicators and one of them is new industrial orders. Short-term business indicators on industry – the industrial production indeks and the industrial turnover indeks can be used to show the monthly market evolution of the products and services produced within industry, while the industrial new orders indeks should help to identify turning points in the business cycle prior to the changes of the both, industrial production and turnover indices. Additionally, some structural components of the indeks will be also analysed. The paper analysesd industrial new oredersw indeks in the Republic of Croatia from 2005 to 2011. The results will be presented according to following groups: intermedate goods, capital goods, durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods.

Business cycle; Croatia; industrial new orders indeks; procurement

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