engleski

Effect of Producer Prices on Production of the Main Agricultural Products in the Republic of Croatia

Within the total Croatian agricultural production in the period 1981-1997, the pork production takes the first place (15.8%), to be followed by corn (14.9%), beef (10.0%), wheat (8.6%), cow milk (8.0%) etc. The aggregate factor of the producer price effect on the total agricultural production is low, i.e. the agricultural product prices have not been significantly affected the production level (R=0.64). Coefficient of determination indicates that only 41% of changes in agricultural production could be explained by changes in producer prices, while 59% were caused by other factors. It is known that the changes within the framework of individual productions are considerably affected by the producer prices from the previous year and/or period. The shifted (by one year) effect of the producer price on the production itself (price in year X as compared to the production in year X+1) is more significant, so the coefficient of correlation for the analyzed period was 0.75, and the coefficient of determination 0.55. The analysis of the producer price effect on the production of the main agricultural products leads to the following conclusions: - The cereals producer price had no major effect on the production level during the analyzed period. The regression analysis indicates that only 2% of the total changes in production level could be explained by the change in the producer price. - The corn showed more intensive reaction to the producer price changes (36% of changes in the corn production level may be attributed to the change in the producer prices). - The potato production does not react at all to the changes of the current producer prices. - The regression analysis carried out for the grapes production indicates that the producer price has no significant effect on the production level on a short-term basis. - The overall cattle gain production shows rather poor reaction to the producer price changes and the coefficient of determination is 0.13. During the analyzed period, the livestock production experienced considerable annual changes in producer prices. Due to longer biological production cycle, the producers' reaction to price changes is slower (coefficient of determination 0.14). - The producer prices in hog-breeding as compared to the cattle live weight gain production have somewhat more intensive effect on the production level (R=0.40). - The producer price of the poultry gain did not have significant effect on production changes. The coefficient of determination shows that only 8% of the production level changes could be attributed to the producer price changes. - Total production of hen eggs poorly reacted to the producer price changes. The changes in the market were affected by the foreign trade measures (primarily import) rather than by domestic production. - The milk producer price during the analyzed period had no major effect on the production level changes. The coefficient of determination is rather low (0.13), and the producer price effect was rather that on the buying-off level. For analyzed products, there is a somewhat higher effect of the price from one year to the production in another. However, it may generally be concluded that the producer prices have no major effect on the production level changes of the major agricultural products in Croatia.

Producer Prices; Agricultural Products; Croatia

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