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The impact of data assimilation of different observation types on forecast of severe precipitation in the northern Adriatic during Hymex IOP 16

During IOP 16 of the HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment – Hymex, a heavy precipitation event occurred over the northern Adriatic region and surrounding mountains and lasted from 26 Oct – 28 Oct 2012. The areas most affected by the event were the municipality of Rijeka in Croatia and regions near Italian-Slovenian border, where the accumulated precipitation in those two days reached more than 200mm. This event was used to perform the initial analysis of the impact of the mesoscale data assimilation of different observational data types, including targeted observations, on the forecast accuracy using the Observing System Experiments (OSE) approach. Simulations were performed using the operational hydrostatic model implemented at DHMZ, which is ALARO with 8km horizontal grid spacing and 37 vertical levels. The data assimilation system used in this study consists of the surface assimilation (OI) and the upper-air assimilation (3DVar) within the ALADIN model framework. The observation dataset used in this study includes SYNOP, SYNOP-SHIP, radiosoundings, MSG AMW winds and satellite radiances from NOAA (AMSU-A, AMSU-B) and MSG (SEVIRI). Furthermore, additional Data Targeting System extra-soundings performed during the IOP16 were used to study the potential for targeting heavy precipitation events in the northern Adriatic area. Forecasts were validated against rain-gauges and remote sensing instruments.

HYMEX; data assimilation; IOP

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