engleski

Long-term perspective for salt wedge intrusion in river Mirna

Numerical analysis of saline wedge intrusion in river Mirna for the periods 2007/2008 and 2019/2020 is presented in this paper. The 3D numerical model covers the area of Novigrad Bay, analyzing the fields of the sea currents, temperature and salinity in the unsteady conditions of the freshwater inflow of river Mirna. The model open boundary conditions for 2007/2008 are referenced on CTD measurements in front of the entrance of Novigrad Bay and the sea surface elevations. For the atmospheric forcing, model uses the data sets from the Aladin atmospheric model results. Analyses related to the future hypothetical condition in the period 2019/2020 are based on the same boundary conditions in terms of the sea temperature/salinity distribution at the model open boundary and atmosphere forcing at the air-sea interface. The influence of changes in the climate is taken into account through an increase in the mean sea level and a decrease in the mean annual discharge of the Mirna in relation to 2007/2008. The results of the analysis indicate significantly increased upstream salt water intrusion in the 2019/2020 simulation period in comparison to that of 2007/2008. The impact of changes in other environmental conditions, such as open sea temperature/salinity and air temperature variations, which can be expected until 2020, was not taken into account.

3D numerical model; climate change; river discharge decrease; salt wedge intrusion; sea level increase

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