engleski

Modelling CO2 emissions impacts on Croatian power system

reg u la tion, lib er al iza tion of en ergy mar kets, in creased com pe ti tion, grow ing de - mands on se cu rity of sup ply, price in se cu ri ties, and de mand to cut CO2 emis sions. All men tioned chal lenges are call ing for con sid er ation of var i ous op tions (like nu - clear, coal, gas or re new able sce nar ios) and for better un der stand ing of en ergy sys - tems mod el ling in or der to op ti mize proper en ergy mix. Ex ist ing mod els are not suf - fi cient any more and plan ners will need to think dif fer ently in or der to face these chal lenges. Eu ro pean emis sion trad ing scheme (EU ETS) started in 2005 and it has great in flu ence on power sys tem short term and long term plan ning. Croatia is obliged to es tab lish a na tional scheme for trad ing of green house gas emis sion al - low ances from the year 2010, which will be fo cused on mon i tor ing and re port ing only un til ac ces sion to EU when it will be linked with EU ETS. Thus, for Cro atian power sys tem it is very im por tant to an a lyze pos si ble im pacts of CO2 emis sions. Anal y sis pre sented in this pa per was done by two dif fer ent mod els: math e mat i cal model, based on short run mar ginal costs (SRMC, rel e vant for fuel switch in ex ist - ing power plant and merit or der change) and long run mar ginal costs (LRMC, rel e - vant for new in vest ment de ci sions) ; and elec tric ity mar ket sim u la tion model PLEXOS, which was used for mod el ling Cro atian power sys tem dur ing de vel op - ment of the Cro atian en ergy strat egy in 2008. Re sults of the anal y sis show im por - tant im pacts that emis sion trad ing has on Cro atian power sys tem, such as in flu ence of emis sion price rise on price of elec tric ity and on emis sion quan tity, and changes in power plants out put that ap pear with emis sion price rise. Breakeven point af ter which gas power plant be comes more com pet i tive than coal is 62 €/tCO2 for SRMC and 40 €/tCO2 for LRMC. With CO2 prices above 31 €/tCO2 wind is more com pet i - tive than gas or coal, which em pha sizes im por tance that emis sion price has on com - pet i tive ness of renewables.

emission trading ; modelling ; power system planning ; optimization ;

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