engleski

Decision-making under uncertainty - Decision making with incomplete data in forest adaptation to climate change: management perspective

Session summary: Sustainable Forest Management generally aim to increase system resilience and adaptability to new climates, while maintaining the forest productivity. Under a changing climate the adaptation of managed forests relies on migration, on the adaptability of species and on other local mechanism, but above all on smart decisions from ecosystem managers. Forest management is now characterized by a classical decision-making dilemma. On the one hand, waiting for a complete scientific understanding of forests adaptation to climate change leads to paralysis by analysis. On the other hand, not changing the management practices in time may lead many forests to extinction by instinct. Assisted migration of populations is increasingly considered as a feasible adaptation option in northern temperate ecosystems. While it has risks, it can be seen as a way to increase the genetic diversity of forest ecosystems. The decision-making dilemma arises, because experimental translocation trials are expensive, long-term international projects. The aim of the session was to explore the practice of decision making with incomplete data in the case of assisted migration of populations, integrating stakeholders and the problems that they found in adapting forests to climate change. The main question of the session was: Is there enough evidence to justify the translocation of forest populations to compensate for climate change?

Climate change; Fraxinus; Forest management; refugia

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