engleski

Towards an explanation of change in the spatial pattern of structural aging in Northeastern Croatia

A profound transformation of the spatial pattern of population aging has taken place in North- eastern Croatia since the 1960s. This research traces the changing spatial pattern of population aging, carries out an exploration of the causes, as well as the consequences. The rapidity of observed changes can be explained as the outcome of a simultaneous influence of different factors on the main components of population aging: mortality ; fertility and migration. These rapid shifts in spatial patterns have been driven by the following factors: (1) development of the transport system, (2) changes in the political- territorial organization, (3) an increase in the supply of jobs in the cities, (4) deagrarianization and (5) the effects of domestic war during the 1990s. The research underscores the importance of understanding the changing spatial patterns by exploring its consequences. The increased importance of urban centers, through planned industrialization and administrative centralization, has accelerated and intensified rural-to-urban migration. This has substantially affected the spatial pattern of the age structure. The age structure differences are particularly apparent between urban and rural settlements, but also among certain subregions and their settlements. The findings suggest that the evolution of spatial disparities has been connected with differentiated impacts of migration (immigration of younger people in certain areas and emigration from other), spatial differences in the level of socio-economic development, the influence of tradition (historically higher fertility rate in some areas) and process of suburbanization (notable around city of Osijek). It is well-known that aging affects economic growth, formal and informal social support systems, and the ability to provide resources for older citizens in these endangered areas. Data from a survey on quality of life in rural areas strongly affected by population aging are used to give a better picture of the consequences of structural aging and possibly to indicate a solution.

Structural aging; spatial pattern; intergenerational change; fertility; mortality

In publishing process