engleski

Estimate of ESI in Croatia – a case study of an economy in transition

Our attempt to construct ESI for Croatian economy has, in our opinion, given encouraging results. In our approach to determine ESI we used weights which reflect structural changes in Croatian economy during the period under observation. We compared two methodologies in constructing ESI, the old and the new one, and though the differences are small, results based on the old methodology have turned out to be better. This assessment is based on the consideration of percentages of correctly predicted and realized changes in the direction of GDP.

ESI; EU methodology; weights; GDP indices; linear regression; leads; Coefficient of correlation

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