engleski

Below-replacement Fertility in European Post-Socialist Countries - the Example of Croatia

At the beginning of 1990s, significant political changes occurred in European socialist countries, which resulted in new social and economic relations and in a remarkable demographic transformation. This transformation has been remarkable in its speed and scope and today most of European post-socialist countries are similar to Western European countries in view of fertility and marriage patterns, age at first marriage and child birth, population aging, etc. Croatia, as a post-socialist country, has experienced significant economic and demographic changes since its independence. However, the roots of negative demographic processes in Croatia date back to late 1960s. In the last twenty years, the most prominent demographic processes in Croatia have been depopulation and population aging. Additionally, since 1991 Croatia has had constant natural decrease whose consequences are visible in both economic and demographic aspects. For the last forty years, Croatia has been characterized by persistent below-replacement fertility levels. Namely, since the beginning of 1970s, TFR in Croatia has been below the level of replacement (in 1961 TFR was 2.15 and in 1971 it was 1.96). In the following decades the situation worsened significantly and since 2001 the TFR has been between 1.33 and 1.50 children per woman. Due to population decline and other negative demographic changes, coupled with specific socio-political changes, Croatia has been faced with many difficulties which are particularly evident at regional and sub-regional levels. In attempt to respond to natural population decline the Government introduced a new population policy in 2006, but its realization and effects are still questionable. The aim of this paper is to investigate the causes and effects of long-term below-replacement fertility in Croatia, the changes in age and marital status of child-bearing women, and compare fertility changes in Croatia with other European post-socialist countries. The secondary aim is to analyze demographic changes at regional level within Croatia and identify the differences between rural and urban areas. It is also necessary to investigate the influence of fertility and population declines, which have been more prominent in rural areas, on education, economy and infrastructure.

Below-replacement fertility; total fertility rate; post-socialist countries; Croatia; population decline

nije evidentirano