engleski

Business cycle Synchronization in Croatia

The purpose of this paper is to analyse business cycle synchronisation in the Croatian economy, using various annualised growth rate variables over a period of eighteen years (1992-2010), de-trended by Hodrick-Prescott filter, and following the Harding and Pagan methodological procedure in determination of its turning points. Our conceptual analysis of synchronisation is based on the technique of concordance indexes and correlation coefficients obtained by the HAC estimators. The main result of the research shows that there is a high degree of probability that dismissal of employees in the Croatian economy will coincide with the contraction phase in industry. The cyclic phase of growth in job creations in great measure coincides with the cyclic phase of growth in export and construction sector. This growth is also associated with tourist arrivals and sustainable development. There is an almost perfect synchronisation between the cyclic phases of the construction sector and import. The central conclusion of the paper is that this study can establish the stylised facts about the dynamics of the Croatian business cycles.

Business cycles ; synchronization of business cycles ; Croatia

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