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Revised ICI as a leading indicator of Croatian industral production during a recession (CROSBI ID 588506)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa

Čižmešija, Mirjana ; Erjavec, Nataša ; Bahovec, Vlasta Revised ICI as a leading indicator of Croatian industral production during a recession // 25th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXV), 8-11 July 2012. Vilnius, Lithuania, www.euro-2012.lt ; Conference programme / Christiansen, M. (ur.). Vilnius: EURO The Association of European Operational Research Societies, 2012. str. 39-39

Podaci o odgovornosti

Čižmešija, Mirjana ; Erjavec, Nataša ; Bahovec, Vlasta

engleski

Revised ICI as a leading indicator of Croatian industral production during a recession

With the aim to improve its forecasting properties, especially during a recession, we modified a standard composite leading indicator (ICI) in Croatia. Two revised ICIs are proposed and their predictive powers were analysed on the bases of several econometric models with variables: standard ICI, two revised ICIs and Croatian industrial production (y-o-y growth rate). As for a Croatian industrial production during the recession it is recommended to forecast only one quarter ahead and revised leading indicator, calculated with negative manager's answers, showed the best forecasting properties.

Forecasting; Developing Countries; Economic Modeling

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Podaci o prilogu

39-39.

2012.

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objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

25th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXV), 8-11 July 2012. Vilnius, Lithuania, www.euro-2012.lt ; Conference programme

Christiansen, M.

Vilnius: EURO The Association of European Operational Research Societies

Podaci o skupu

25TH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (EURO XXV)

predavanje

08.07.2012-11.07.2012

Vilnius, Litva

Povezanost rada

Ekonomija