engleski

Stochastical categories in the probability of success (POS) calculation

Geological risk of existence of hydrocarbon reservoir is calculated on deterministical, stochastical or expert-opinion way. The most often term for numerical result is ‘Probability Of Success’ (abbr. POS) of hydrocarbon discovery. In all cases it included adding of probability values to categories that define hydrocarbon system. Here is described hybrid model, based on the most often deterministical approach that is, up to now, applied in the Croatian hydrocarbon provinces in the Pannonian Basin System. The term “hybrid” is applied because deterministical estimation of one category is replaced with stochastical calculations. As result, some geological events can be estimated with several values, what eventually give several probabilities of hydrocarbon reservoir existence. This is advantage of classical deterministical approach.

geological risk; determinism; stochastic; Pannonian basin; Croatia

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