engleski

Bank Credit Activity and Economic Growth int the Republic of Croatia

In this paper the author employs a cointegration approach and Granger causality tests in order to estimate the impact of credits to business companies, households and government on economic growth in Croatia. The efficiency of the Croatian monetary authority and government to halt negative trends in the growth rate of GDP during the recession has been analysed. The main results shows that there is one cointegrating vector between the pairs GDP growth – total credit growth and GDP growth – corporate credit growth, and there is no cointegration between GDP growth – state credit growth and GDP growth – credit household growth. Granger Causality tests suggest that GDP growth affects the variable of total loans, and a further sectoral analysis shows that there is no Granger causality in either direction between GDP growth and credit growth to government and to households, while there is Granger causality between the growth of corporate loans and GDP growth.

recession; bank credit activity; economic growth; Croatia

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