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ARIMA models and the Box – Jenkins approach in analysing and forecasting variables in field of sustainable development – the case of Croatia

The purpose of the paper is applying the Box-Jenkins approach in developing an appropriate ARIMA model with the aim to analyze and forecast the total energy consumption in Croatia as a most important variable in the field of sustainable development. The analysis was conducted for the period since 1992 up to 2008 and forecasts values were determined up to 2014. There are two ARIMA models selected as representative: ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1).

sustainable development; total energy consumption; Box-Jenkins approach; ARIMA model; ADF test.

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