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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 549358

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size


Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjšček, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size // Nature communications, 2 (2011), 186-1 doi:10.1038/ncomms1183 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)


CROSBI ID: 549358 Za ispravke kontaktirajte CROSBI podršku putem web obrasca

Naslov
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

Autori
Molnár, Péter K. ; Derocher, Andrew E. ; Klanjšček, Tin ; Lewis, Mark A.

Izvornik
Nature communications (2041-1723) 2 (2011); 186-1

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
Polar bears; climate change; reproduction; dynamic energy budgets

Sažetak
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija, Biologija



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekti:
098-0982934-2719 - Ekološko modeliranje za održivo upravljanje resursima (Legović, Tarzan, MZOS ) ( POIROT)

Ustanove:
Institut "Ruđer Bošković", Zagreb

Profili:

Avatar Url Tin Klanjšček (autor)

Citiraj ovu publikaciju

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjšček, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size // Nature communications, 2 (2011), 186-1 doi:10.1038/ncomms1183 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)
Molnár, P., Derocher, A., Klanjšček, T. & Lewis, M. (2011) Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size. Nature communications, 2, 186-1 doi:10.1038/ncomms1183.
@article{article, year = {2011}, pages = {186-1-186-}, DOI = {10.1038/ncomms1183}, keywords = {Polar bears, climate change, reproduction, dynamic energy budgets}, journal = {Nature communications}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms1183}, volume = {2}, issn = {2041-1723}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size}, keyword = {Polar bears, climate change, reproduction, dynamic energy budgets} }
@article{article, year = {2011}, pages = {186-1-186-}, DOI = {10.1038/ncomms1183}, keywords = {Polar bears, climate change, reproduction, dynamic energy budgets}, journal = {Nature communications}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms1183}, volume = {2}, issn = {2041-1723}, title = {Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size}, keyword = {Polar bears, climate change, reproduction, dynamic energy budgets} }

Časopis indeksira:


  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus
  • MEDLINE


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