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Energy policy and its impact on the long term energy demand projections of Croatian transport sector

Transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today with a share of almost one third of final energy demand. That is why improving energy efficiency and implementing different mechanisms that would lead to energy savings in this sector would be relevant. Through this paper long term energy demand projections for Croatian transport sector will be shown with a special emphasis on different energy policy mechanisms, both financial or legal that will influence future energy demand scenarios. It was important to see how these mechanisms can influence, positive or negative, on future energy demand and which mechanism would be most influential. Energy demand predictions are based upon end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. Model combines detailed modal structure of Croatian transport sector including road, rail, air and water transport modes with emphasis given to energy efficiency improvements of different vehicles. One of the features that model also includes is the intermodal forms of transport which can be important parameter in energy demand modeling. Additional value of the model lies in its applicableness to other countries and its transport sectors. Based on its importance regarding Croatian energy balance, transport sector represents important part of Croatian energy strategy. One of the major conclusions shown in this paper is significant possibilities for energy efficiency improvements and lower energy demand in the future based on careful and rational energy planning.

Transportni sektor; buduća energetska potrošnja; energetsko planiranje

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