engleski

A Climate for Change : Climate change and its impacts on society and economy in Croatia : Human Development Report – Croatia 2008

A Good Climate for Change – Findings and Recommendations 14.1. General findings While this report is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change, it does reflect the breadth and depth of research that has been done in many sectors to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the everyday human development issues facing Croatia. The research and analysis in this Human Development Report indicates that while climate change will likely pose serious threats to human development in Croatia, the country still has a “ good climate for change” that will allow it to rise to the challenge. Why? • Croatians are concerned about climate change and supportive of the changes that may be necessary to address it. The public opinion survey of 1000 Croatians indicated a high degree of concern about climate change and a willingness to act. 96% of Croatians surveyed believe that climate change is either a “ very serious” problem or a “ serious” problem. Over two thirds of respondents indicated they would be willing to pay more money for heat and electricity every month to ensure that their energy sources were renewable. Further, a solid majority of Croatians are already taking actions – such as reducing energy use – that will reduce their carbon footprint. • Climate variability already results in significant damages in Croatia. Agricultural production, human health, the energy supply, and livelihoods – all key components of human development – are already vulnerable to climate variability which may be a result of existing climate change. The August 2003 heat wave caused an estimated 4% increase in mortality. The same year, hydro-electricity production decreased by almost 20% due to the drought. Between 2000 and 2007, extreme weather events have resulted in average annual costs to agriculture of EUR 176 million – a figure greater than direct payments made to farmers by government during that period. Invasive species of fish that are likely due to changes in the Adriatic temperature have already created opportunities and threats within the fishing and mariculture industries. Climate events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods provide an opportunity to assess Croatia’ s readiness for some of the impacts of future climate change, and the ability of the government to respond to these impacts. • Future climate change will likely have an impact on a broad range of sectors, though it is not currently possible to say how with the level of current knowledge. It is likely that future climate change – changes in the precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and the frequency of extreme events – will have an impact on some of the most important economic systems in Croatia. This includes: o Agricultural production is likely to experience a drop in the yields of various crops, though maize is the only one which has been modeled. o Hydro-power production may decrease due to reduced river flow, and wetlands benefits may be endangered due to less precipitation. o The tourism sector – particularly where foreign tourists come to the coast during a peak time of the year – may face challenges due to uncomfortably hot summers and opportunities due to better weather during the spring and autumn. Additional threats may result due to damage to particularly important tourist destinations and/or increases in severe weather related events such as heat waves and forest fires. o Many parts of the coastline may be vulnerable to sea-level rise, including the Neretva Delta, some urban areas such as the island of Krapanj, some parts of Split, and natural areas such as Vrana Lake near Biograd and the River Krka. o The fisheries and mariculture industries are likely to benefit in some ways from increased production of certain types of fish and shellfish, although there are risks from invasive species and sea temperatures that may reduce the number of other species. o Human health – especially among older people – will experience increased risks due to heat waves during the summer. However, mild winter temperatures are likely to reduce health problems caused by cold weather. Additionally, changes in allergen patterns may also cause problems for certain groups. • Climate change will not affect all Croatians equally. Certain groups in society face a greater risk from future climate change. These include residents of certain regions that face the double burden of low incomes and employment in/ reliance on weather-sensitive industries. They also include the elderly, who face added health risks due to heat waves. Additionally, poorer segments of society may find it difficult to cope with rising commodity prices (including energy and food) because of limited income. For both of these groups, climate change may be a threat multiplier ; i.e., it may make existing difficulties more severe. Groups at greater risk will require special attention. • Looking towards the year 2020, there is a large potential for reduction of emissions that can put Croatia on track towards reducing emissions. Preliminary analysis shows that Croatia should be able to reduce its emissions beyond that of 1990 levels – perhaps as much as 18% through measures that would have either a small net economic benefit or cost less than 1% of current GDP for the year 2020. They include energy efficiency measures, sustainable transportation policies, renewable energy policies, and measures to encourage fugitive methane utilization, introduction of more renewable energy, and changes in industrial production processes. Further, the potential for GHG “ sinks” in Croatia is quite large, though it may not all count in international negotiations. Forest cover and carbon content increases in soils could have a huge impact on emissions reductions, though the cost and benefits need to be further explored. In order to carry out these measures, massive involvement of the public, the private sector, and various government actors will be necessary. There are also potential measures that are more controversial, such as the development of nuclear power and the incineration of waste products for energy, which have been identified as potentially cost-effective but may not be feasible for reasons of environmental sustainability and public resistance. • The fundamental elements of a framework to mitigate climate change are being put into place. The government is already moving to address climate change mitigation through instruments such as the carbon fee and the European emission trading system that is currently being established. Additionally, many companies and NGOs are working to include emissions reductions as part of their programs. However, there is a need for increased coordination at the national level – including involvement of sectors such as agriculture and transportation in efforts to reduce emissions. There are also policy decisions being considered by the government, such as sectoral development strategies that do not take climate change issues into consideration. 14.2. Recommendations With the findings listed above, Croatia needs to continue national dialogue about the net effects of climate change and about opportunities to strengthen the Croatian economy and Croatia’ s society. The recommendations throughout this report about next steps fall into two general groups: recommendations related to research needs and recommendations related to policies and institutions. 14.2.1. Research Needs • Data needs for the present: In order to address current climate variability – regardless of future climate change, there are data needs that would make a difference in the management of specific sectors. In agriculture, better data on yields of crops and the economics of individual farms would help decision-makers to decide how to spend resources. Additional economic data about the actual gross margins and the impact of various economic factors such as the price of fertilizers, water inputs, labour, market prices, etc. on agriculture would also be helpful. In addition, continued and improved cooperation among the authorities in Croatia as well as among the hydrometeorological services in various countries in the region could help in responding to natural disasters in order to limit human development damages. This is true in the case of storms, heat waves, forest fires, and other major events. Within all sectors, a more open data sharing structure would benefit the research community and actors either within the government or outside of the government whose plans may depend upon data from another institution. Research that is funded by public money must be available for use by other public institutions and the general public. • Modelling needs: To address current needs – especially in agriculture, crop models that respond to changes in existing climate or inputs would aid governmental decision-making about subsidies and rescue packages. Further, a macro-economic model of the agriculture sector and the entire Croatian economy would help the government to better understand the impacts of current changes in prices on the economy, employment, and poverty levels. In looking at future climate change, efforts to downscale global climate models into regional climate models will be helpful in a variety of sectors. Models will then be able to project changes in agriculture, precipitation patterns that may lead to changes in river flow (and thus a drop in hydro-electric power or other problems), and physical impacts on popular and lucrative tourist destinations such as Plitvice Lakes National Park, wetlands, and fisheries. Physical impact studies coupled with economic analysis could then provide the basis for developing adaptation measures to avoid damages from climate change. Finally, additional analysis related to mitigation is necessary and more stakeholders beyond the energy and industrial sector should be engaged in efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change to ensure that emissions reduction measures support the human development process. • Understanding causal relationships: In addition to having the modelling ability to project the impact of climate change on Croatia and then understanding the economics behind potential adaptation measures, a direct linkage needs to be made between climate and human development in Croatia. The sectors analyzed in this report have and will continue to have a dramatic impact on poverty alleviation, livelihoods, and economic development. Climate-related risks – though not necessarily attributable to climate change – have been demonstrated already within the agricultural sector and to some extent within the health, fisheries, power, and even tourism sectors (because of forest fires and droughts). Policy-makers and planners who must necessarily think in the long term need to incorporate current climate variability and future climate change into their planning processes. • Applied policy analysis: For particular areas of the coast that may be vulnerable to sea level rise, more detailed analysis would be advisable if planning any major infrastructure investments. For the agricultural sector, a detailed cost-benefit analysis should be carried out to address current problems related to soil moisture. For the water sector, more analysis would be helpful regarding high water losses due to leakage and a cost-benefit analysis of measures to reduce leaks. 14.2.2. Policies and Institutions • To address both vulnerability and mitigation effectively, Croatia must improve its coordination among different actors. This report recommends establishing a high– level, inter-ministerial committee on climate change that could facilitate discussions within the government and then reach out to important stakeholders, such as businesses, civil society, and the general public. There are tremendous opportunities to improve human development in Croatia through energy efficiency measures, which save public money, and by reducing risks from climate-related disasters. More high-level support will be needed to integrate climate issues into decision-making. • Integration: Because climate change is such a broad-based and multi-sectoral issue, many government agencies/ ministries as well as private entities/ firms will need to be engaged in the discussion on what Croatia does about it. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development will need to be involved in decisions related to adaptation measures as well as mitigation measures. Croatian Waters, which is developing plans for 20-30 years in the future, should be taking climate change into account. HEP will need to think about what impact river flows may have on electricity production in addition to the potential increased energy needs for cooling in the summer months – especially due to tourists. The tourism sector is already beginning to address reducing emissions from tourism activities, but more work is necessary to understand the potential impacts of climate change on coastal and inland tourism in Croatia. The Ministry of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure should be incorporating issues related to mitigation of emissions from transport into decisions along with spatial planners. While climate change mitigation is already listed in many strategic documents, massive effort will be required for Croatia to reduce its emissions. While many of the steps to reduce emissions can actually save money, they require forward thinking and strategic effort. • A national position for post-2012 mitigation issues: This report is not in a position to say what level of emissions the Republic of Croatia should be willing to commit to under any post-2012 climate change regime. However, emissions reductions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) – seem to have massive potential for carbon removal in Croatia. This includes sequestration in forests as well sequestration in soils, which may also improve soil moisture. It seems that Croatia can move towards a lower carbon economy moving beyond 2020, but it will take significant political will and organizational capacity in addition to bankable energy efficiency projects, public action, and continued signals from the government that Croatia needs to be a part of the global solution to climate change. • An inclusive position: Because of the broad-based nature of mitigation and adaptation, it is critical that lines of communication with stakeholders are open, including opportunities for stakeholder involvement at various stages of planning processes. There may be great opportunities to forward human development while either reducing emissions or by making a sector less vulnerable to climate variability and/or climate change. Future adaptation or mitigation measures must also take into account the needs of stakeholders and the technological and economic capacity for change. • A proactive position towards public involvement: Though the public often doesn’ t see themselves as responsible for climate change, public involvement and understanding of climate change is absolutely critical in reducing emissions in a cost-effective way and in addressing current and future climate risks. More education and fact-based public discussion is needed to educate Croatians of all ages on the effects of climate change and the steps the government is taking now and in the future. The mass media is the best avenue for this, though the education system should include topics related to climate change, particularly mitigation levels at the individual level. As a country that has emerged from the turbulent decade of the 1990s with very bright economic and social prospects and with a strong concern for environment, Croatia is ready to accept the challenge of moving forward as a regional leader in addressing future climate change by reducing emissions and minimizing climate-related risks to human development. The Croatian public is both concerned and willing to act. Croatian institutions have the political will to avoid the worst damages from climate change by taking on responsibility for reducing emissions. The Croatian scientific and research community has the potential to be a regional leader in understanding and addressing climate risks. While the next several decades are critical to avoiding the dire impacts of serious climate change globally and protecting Croatia from climate-related damages, Croatia stands ready to take on this challenge.

climate change; impacts; society; economy

ISSN:1332-3989