engleski

Anthropological cybernetic model of demographic structures in the Republic of Croatia

Intentions of the present investigation were: a) to apply a cybernetic model in description of demography of the Republic of Croatia and b) to underline specificity of this type model appllcation in anthropology based on definitions of systems theory as a reaction against reductionism. The cybernetic model is based on the idea that continuos processes of childbirth and ageing can be represented by compartment analysis. Compartment subpopulations were subjected to: a) the elimination by mortality and emigration described by constants Fi, o, and b) the enlargement by the immigration process decribed by constants Fo, l. The consistency of the model is evaluated through the comparison between model data and census. The model prediction of the census and mortality for the period between 1953 to 1998 is far enough (wlthin ą 2%). Application of this type of models provides a possibility that the anthropological fitness of regions could be quantifed. The obtained data reveals that autoreproduction of the system and its fitness could be described by the chaos theory.

Cybernetic model; demography; anthropology; Croatia

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