engleski

Antropological cybernetic model of demography of the Island of Hvar

Intentions of the present investigation were to apply a cybernetic model in description of demography on the island of Hvar for a time period from year 1800 till now. The basic idea of the model applied in this anthropological study (LOPI) is that the rate of reproduction is given by the non-linear controller: Y2/Te(1-(Y3/G)). Constant G represents an environmental carrying capacity of a community with respect to the cohort of older people (no longer a part of the pool of reproductive inhabitants ; Y3) sharing limited survival resources. The proportional constant 1/Te connected with the pool of reproductive inhabitants (Y2) correspond to the reproduction maximum. The consistency of the model is evaluated through comparison between model data and census. The LOPI model describes incredibly well the demography of the island of Hvar from the year 1800 till 1940. After year 1950 there were more inhabitants on the island then the model would predict. This fact is connected with changes in the migration or also in the increased carrying capacity (G). On the basis LOPI model, population dynamic oscillates in its development. The example of the island of Hvar has proved that population reaches a maximal number of inhabitants every 200 years. The oscillation of population dynamics is influenced by the migration processes. The mere fact that oscillating population size is connected to population genetics and probably also to sociocultural factors suggests that a cybernetics demographic model can be a guide in the holistic anthropological approach.

Cybernetic model; demography; island of Hvar

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