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Prediction of Wind Power Plants Energy Production by use of the Publicly Available Wind Measurement Data

Current Croatian power system is characterized by a large hydro power plants HPP (2000 MW in HPP of which 1600 MW is storage, 286 MW reversible or pumped storage and rest is run-of river) and thermal power plants of which 500 MW operate as CHP. Although a feed-in tariff system for promotion of renewable energy sources has been introduced in 2007, the large development of new sources has not emerged as in the other EU countries. To speed up the process of power system development, in 2009, the Croatian Parliament accepted new energy strategy with a goal to satisfy 20% of electricity consumption in 2020 by energy from wind power plants or to have totally installed 1200 MW of wind turbines. With installed 70 MW of wind in 2010 there is a lot of job to be done in the next ten years by various stakeholders if goals set by the strategy will be fulfilled. Nevertheless, in the Croatian registry of RES projects investors applied over 5400 MW of new installations, of which 4500 MW are located in the Southern Croatian region Dalmatia as it has very favourable wind conditions. The main problem that is in front of power system operators, investors in wind power, banks and energy planers is how to determine and predict, with the acceptable uncertainty or error, yearly, monthly, hourly and instantaneously power production of wind power plants from the field measurements in the Southern Croatia. The power system operators are interested in impacts of wind power on reliability and efficiency of the power system, while investors and owners in wind power plants and banks are more interested on production at certain location or site. Interest of Energy planers will be somewhere in between as usually they need to take care of planning from local to regional and global levels. Paper presents results for the vertical wind profile determined by multiple regression and related power production from certain types of wind turbines. Moreover, presented are correlations of hourly wind production inside a country which can describe local and regional level impact on the operation of the power system.

Wind power; Wind Speed Measurements; Croatian Power System

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