engleski

Project GENESIS: groundwater and dependent ecosystems - new scientific and technical basis for assessing climate change and land-use impacts on groundwater systems

Groundwater resources are facing increasing pressure from water uses and contamination by diffuse (e.g. agriculture) and point pollution sources (e.g. industry). These pressures cause major threat and risk to the consumptive use of groundwater, e.g. for water supply or industry. Furthermore, groundwater pollution and lowering of groundwater levels in some areas resulted in negative impacts on quality and quantity status of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDE). Land-use and particularly climate change are the key variables that determine the groundwater pollution potential. The future climate change scenarios suggest that global average temperature will increase by 1, 8-4 0C from 2000-2100 (IPCC, 2007). This will result in increases in temperature, shifts in precipitation patterns and snow cover, an increase in the frequency of flooding and droughts, and the possible large impact of future sea-level rises (EEA, 2007). These impacts will result in water quality and quantity changes as well as key economic activities such as tourism or agriculture. The EU Groundwater Directive, GWD (2006/118/EC) and the Water Framework Directive, WFD (2000/60/EC) provide means to protect aquifers from pollution and deterioration. However, the new scientific basis for the revision of the GWD has been required in the articles and annexes of this directive, with the aim to solve specific issues related to the protection of groundwater and GDE. These needs will be addressed by EU GENESIS project, funded under the Seventh Framework Programme, with the aim to integrate pre-existing and new scientific knowledge into new methods, concepts and tools for the revision of the GWD and better management of groundwater resources. The work in this 5-years project, which started in 2009, has been divided into seven work packages. The Zagreb aquifer system has been selected as one of the test sites for the GENESIS project work purposes. Faculty of mining, geology and petroleum engineering, partner institution in the project consortium, is responsible for providing this case study for hypotheses testing and model developments and to study impacts and threats to groundwater and GDE from land-use (WP1). Groundwater flow characteristics are studied using statistical modelling of groundwater level fluctuations, numerical modelling of ground water flow and also tracer methods, e.g. non-reactive environmental tracers 18O, 2H and 3H, in order to verify and to improve the existing conceptual model of the Zagreb aquifer system (WP2). Development of conceptual model is also provided by detailed field and laboratory research, including detail sampling of bulk samples and undisturbed samples, field measurement of hydraulic conductivity in unsaturated zone, laboratory measurements of physical and chemical properties and column leaching experiment on undisturbed samples. Characterisation of the spatial-temporal nature of groundwater flow and transport of pollutants is supported by the modelling of groundwater flow and transport through the unsaturated zone at local scales in Zagreb area, using Hydrus software package (WP3) and by integration of the available data on GDE in Zagreb area in the conceptual model of the aquifer system in order to estimate recharge-discharge pattern between groundwater and GDE, particularly Sava river, which has great influence on recharging the groundwater in this area (WP4). To couple various physical and geochemical processes in the Zagreb aquifer system, integrated modeling of unsaturated and saturated zone is required by applying 1 D column model (soil-unsaturated zone) to estimate recharge rates and concentrations of solutes (heavy metals) for use in MODFLOW in local scale. To apply the results in regional scale, statistical modeling is needed in order to interpolate the results of local coupled models and to create spatial distribution of parameters throughout the whole regional model domain. To achieve understanding of transport regime of heavy metals in heterogeneous alluvial aquifers and to reconstruct the evolution of an existing plume(s) (using heavy metals as indicators of contamination) from its origin to the present state it is necessary to gain the knowledge on initial concentrations of selected heavy metals in the model domain by calculating its geochemical background concentrations (WP5). One of the key objectives of the GENESIS project is development of an integrated socio-hydro-economic modelling framework for selecting sustainable cost-efficient measures and management strategies to achieve the good quantitative and chemical groundwater status in an uncertain environment. Coupling of groundwater models and socio-economic data analysis is required in order to simulate the economic impacts of different policies and management strategies in the context of diverse land-use and climate change (WP6). Acknowledgments: The study was supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project GENESIS (226536) on groundwater systems. References: Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy, Off. J. Eur. Communities L 327, 22.12.2000. Directive 2006/118/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 December 2006 on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration, Off. J. Eur. Communities L 372, 27.12.2006. EEA (2007): Climate change and water adaptation issues, EEA Technical report No 2/2007, 110 p. IPCC (2007): Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 18 p.

integrated modelling; climate change; land-use impact; Zagreb aquifer system

nije evidentirano