engleski

Discount method in drug prices determination and cost-effectiveness assessment

In the cost – effectiveness analysis, it is a common practice to determinate future drug prices using real prices i.e. prices adjusted for inflation (consumer prices growth index). Cost-effectiveness analyses worldwide have shown that the starting point in the analyses are real, inflation adjusted drug prices during a certain period, i.e. that the nominal value of any drug increases with inflation. However, although cost-effectiveness analyses world-wide are based on the assumption that the real price of any given drug is constant over time, some authors estimated that, in this respect, the real price of any given drug decreases rapidly. The main objective of this research is to indicate that the real drug prices in Croatia are decreasing, as well as to establish which discount rate could be used in calculations and pharmaco-economic analyses. In order to conduct a dynamic price calculation, the analysis covers a period from 2000 to 2010 for 25 drugs sold the most in the Republic of Croatia. Nominal prices are adjusted to the constant prices from 2010 and show average decrease of 6, 7 per cent respectively (taking into consideration the consumer price index), or for 4, 5 per cent (pharmaceuticals prices). In order to calculate discount rate which could be used for prediction purposes, model analyses have been made for four leading pharmaceutical companies in Croatia: Pliva, Belupo, Farmal and Jadranski galenski laboratorij. By using financial situation analyses on the pharmaceuticals market, tax polices in the Republic of Croatia, performance of concrete pharmaceutical companies, the CAPM model is used to calculate weighted cost of capital which amounts to 7, 83 per cent and could be used for the discount rate in estimations of the value of capital assets and prediction of business success of pharmaceutical products.

real prices of pharmaceutical products; discount rate; WACC

Rad će biti prezentiran na Drugom hrvatskom kongresu farmakoekonomike i istraživanja ishoda liječenja s međunarodnim sudjelovanjem, 6.-9. travanja 2011., Rovinj