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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 523454

Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region

Herceg Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred
Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region // Climate dynamics, 38 (2012), 11/12; 2593-2612 doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1151-9 (međunarodna recenzija, članak, znanstveni)

Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region

Herceg Bulić, Ivana ; Kucharski, Fred

Climate dynamics (0930-7575) 38 (2012), 11/12; 2593-2612

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u časopisima, članak, znanstveni

Ključne riječi
ENSO; delayed impact; precipitation; Europe; teleconnection mechanism

The delayed impact of winter sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical Pacific on spring precipitation over the North Atlantic/European (NAE) region is examined using both measured and modeled data for the period 1901–2002. In an AMIP-type Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) ensemble, the observed delayed spring precipitation response in Europe to winter ENSO-related SST anomalies is well reproduced. A series of targeted AGCM/coupled GCM experiments are performed to further investigate the mechanisms for this delayed influence. It is found that late winter ENSO SST anomalies lead to the well-documented Rossby wave train arching from the Pacific into the Atlantic region. A positive (negative) ENSO event leads to a quasi-barotropic trough (ridge) in the North Atlantic region. The resulting wind and cloud changes cause anomalies in the surface heat fluxes that result in negative (positive) SST anomalies in the central North Atlantic and anomalies of the opposite sign further to the south. The SST anomalies persist into spring and the atmospheric response to these anomalies is an extension of the ENSO-induced trough (ridge) into the European region, leading to enhanced (reduced) moisture flux and low-level convergence (divergence) and thus positive (negative) precipitation anomalies. Although the signal is overall relatively weak (correlation coefficients of European spring rainfall with winter ENSO SSTs of about 0.3), a proper representation of the outlined mechanism in seasonal forecasting systems may lead to improved seasonal predictions.

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Znanstvena područja


Projekt / tema
119-1193086-1323 - Kakvoća zraka nad kompleksnom topografijom (Zvjezdana Bencetić-Klaić, )

Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb

Autor s matičnim brojem:
Ivana Herceg Bulić, (219312)

Časopis indeksira:

  • Current Contents Connect (CCC)
  • Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC)
    • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP)
    • SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
  • Scopus