engleski

Vision of Total Renewable Electricity Scenario

This paper analyses the reality of Total Renewable Electricity Scenario (TRES) from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) as a totally green strategy of electric energy production. The paper is based on the EREC’s Agency forecast until the year 2040, which foresees the share of 82% of RES, extended to 100% of RES. The key element that creates conditions for achieving this ambitious scenario is an innovative combination of RES and Pump Storage Hydroelectric (PSH) power plants, the so-called Concept H, which can simultaneously use the energy of local RES (sun and wind) and local precipitation (natural waterflows) and in this way can provide continuous supply of electric power and energy to consumers. The methodology is based on the model of equivalent RES and equivalent reservoir that allows a comprehensive view of available RES and hydro system. The total required land use of RES system would be 29, 517 km2 of RES (which would amount to about 0.5% of the total technical potential of using RES), total reservoir volumes would be 880 km3 (which is only 8% of all artificial reservoirs built in the world to the date) and the orientation estimate of investment in TRES would then be approximately 1% of world GDP in 2009, which clearly shows that the TRES is realistically feasible. It has been shown that implementation of the green strategy of energy balance fulfilling can be realised with present day technology. Precisely this fact shows that further increase of efficiency of RES and their combining into RES-PHS power plants, along with increase in the cost of classic power fuels and the growing needs for environment protection, the proposed solution of TRES realization could be widely important and thus become a serious alternative to the existing energy strategies and a guideline to decision makers throughout the world.

sustainable development; energy policy; renewable energy; hydro energy; electricity; concept H

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