engleski

CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND/OR HUMAN IMPACT !?

IPCC establishes the increase of approximately 0.8±0.1 ºC in the average global temperature near Earth's surface since 1900, and strongly connects it with anthropogenic influences of "greenhouse gasses". American Geophysical Union considers that the complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some aspects of human induced climate change. Climate change has become widely synonymous with that of global warming. This is paradoxically, construed in a very negative way as inevitably catastrophic in whole planet. For the detailed and unbiased analysis of this great planetary problem one of the obstacle is that the science of climate change is inextricably mixed up with politics and media. In this paper some long lasting hydrological and climatological time series are used in order to explain differences between the concepts of climate changes and climate variability. Second goal of the paper is explanation of interconnections between natural (geophysical) and human impacts on variability observed in these long lasting time series. Definite conclusions are that impacts of climate change are very uncertain, and that human interventions can influence hydrological and climatological changes on restricted (local or regional) regions.

climate changes; climate variability; anthropogenic influence

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