engleski

Traffic Models Used For the Purposes Execution of Socio-Economic Analysis of Zagreb-Sisak Motorway

This paper describes modelling of traffic flows for the purposes of Zagreb-Sisak motorway socio-economic feasibility analysis. Analysis and long-term projection of traffic demand within the existing road network and the planned technical-engineering design alternative has been performed. In order to for an integral transport system database, transport demands in road network of the area between the city of Zagreb and Sisak, along state roads D30 and D36 have been analyzed. Development of transport facilities in corridor area and adjoining areas have been taken into consideration as area of field investigation (in situ sampling) was determined. Regular road traffic count data was also available for the assessment of the transport demand in the subject area. Existing data facilitated establishment of AADT time series for counting locations within the area encompassed by the project. Traffic counting and survey polls were carried out for the purposes of the analysis. Origin-destination poll data provided by motor vehicle drivers in the area were collected, and adjusting manual traffic counts were performed during the polling. Number of drivers polled need correspond to a qualified sample, and the sample need be expanded to overall flow volume, thus requiring control count at such locations. Process of forming planned transport supply model relies on distinction between two investment states at a given period: road network without the investment and the network with the investment implemented. Assignment of overall projected travel to the network model following the investment, is carried out for each year when there is an expected alteration of the network: years 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2034, as well as for five year intervals when annual traffic growth rate is projected to change. Traffic demand has been determined in compliance with phased construction of the motorway, balanced relative to three models of planned traffic supply of the corridor network. Graphically, results of the projections are provided as a direct product of SW VISUM 10.3 projections of overall AADTS.

Zagreb-Sisak motorway; socio-economic feasibility analysis; traffic demand; model; network; VISUM; growth rate

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